Of all the Chinese investments under the Belt and Road Initiative, those in south Asia threaten to cause the most geopolitical tension, as India becomes encircled by countries receiving billions of dollars from its richest regional rival.
Beijing is spending more than $100bn in south Asia. The two biggest recipients are Pakistan and Bangladesh, but regional analysts say China is aiming to achieve different things in these countries, and these differences illustrate a broader dichotomy in the BRI project.
In Pakistan, China has pledged to spend $62bn upgrading its southern neighbour’s infrastructure, ostensibly to secure a trading route to the Gwadar port on Pakistan’s south coast. But some believe that with its infrastructure schemes unlikely to provide a return, and Gwadar port unlikely to be cheaper than other routes to sea, China is really using the money to help a useful ally that has fallen on difficult times.