As the G20 nations concluded their fractious meeting in Argentina with a statement that papered over some deep and worrying divisions on climate and trade policies, the latest results from the Fulcrum nowcast models continue to suggest that the global economy is slowing down quite markedly.
This autumn, there have been shades of the more serious market crisis in 2015-16, when a major slowdown in China, together with a tightening by the Federal Reserve, triggered an episode of severe nerves about global deflation.
The good news is that the Fed has now changed its tune, with Jay Powell’s speech and the FOMC minutes last week clearly indicating that the central bank is preparing the markets for a pause in rate hikes after the December meeting.