The fog of war usually rolls away during a ceasefire. But the murk surrounding trade is too thick to be dispelled by a temporary truce between the US and China. Shares in sectors such as autos and luxury goods jumped together in relief that tariffs will not rise on January 1. Just as indiscriminate sell-offs provide alluring buying opportunities, some of Monday’s advances may be shortlived.
In principle, the makers of cars, products that are traded heavily across borders, could gain the most from the easing of tensions. President Donald Trump tweeted that China had agreed to lower tariffs on auto imports, although Beijing has not confirmed the measure.
If true, it would be a fillip for Europe’s manufacturers, which have been badly caught in the crossfire of the west-east trade war. BMW, which imported 100,000 cars into China from the US in 2017, has said the tariffs could hit its 2018 earnings by €300m. Returning the tariff to 15 per cent by January 1 might push up 2019 operating profits by about 5 per cent, says Citi. Daimler’s earnings might get a 4 per cent boost.