2019 is the year of the pig, according to the Chinese calendar. It is also the year that marks the 20th anniversary of the return of the former Portuguese colony of Macau to the motherland of mainland China.
Those reasons — superstitious and sentimental — are on a list put out by Credit Suisse, in an attempt to justify a bullish stance on casino firms operating in Macau, the world’s biggest gambling centre, after a very rocky year. In 2018 the Bloomberg Macau China Gaming index fell by more than a quarter, under-performing the Hang Seng stock index as a whole, reflecting a year of macro pressures as high rollers from the Chinese mainland cut back on spending and borrowing.
That means that this year is beginning on a note of low expectations and undemanding valuations. Still, there are lingering risks — not all of them economic — as China gets ready to celebrate the lunar new year and its reunion with Macau. Perhaps the biggest is the risk that casino companies in Macau will join the growing numbers of firms becoming hostage to Sino-US tensions, whatever happens this week.