Taiwan exists in the precarious space between the ambitions of two superpowers. China threatens to attack the island if it declares independence, while the US is legally obliged to help with its defence. For most of the past 40 years, the tensions in this triangular relationship have been largely contained. In recent months, however, stresses have intensified to a point where they may imperil the delicate coexistence.
Such strains derive from a nexus of issues. The majority of democratic Taiwan’s 23m people want their island’s self-determination to be recognised by Beijing. But China insists that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must be re-absorbed. The US has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan but treats it as a virtual ally. Meanwhile, Washington’s rivalry with Beijing deepens.
Against this backdrop, any moves by Washington to bolster Taiwan’s capacity for self-rule never fail to inflame Beijing. But in the current environment — in which each superpower is led by a hard-driving, nationalistic president, while Taiwan is headed by a pro-independence leader — circumstances may be unusually incendiary.