Might Donald Trump’s ill-thought-out trade war with China benefit its victim? The answer is “yes”. The Chinese authorities could respond to external pressure by shifting towards competitive neutrality between state, non-state and foreign business. The result might then be an economic resurgence.
Chinese growth fell to an annualised rate of 4 per cent in December 2018. The immediate causes of this were the government’s determination to slow the growth of credit and the trade war with the US. But a loss of confidence by the private sector, in response to the indifference, even hostility, of the all-powerful President Xi Jinping, was also a factor. Indeed, in a recent book, the US expert, Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues that China now suffers from resurgent state domination over the economy.
Things might be shifting. The economy is apparently recovering. In his report to the National People’s Congress last month, premier Li Keqiang also indicated the government’s determination to ease credit. In addition, the government has decided to make a substantial cut in value added tax, in order to boost consumer spending. There is some (albeit recently dwindling) optimism that the US and China will reach a trade deal, because, it is felt, both presidents believe this to be in their own interests.