The world is in an awkward place. High debt levels, little inflation, slowing economic growth, not to mention restive politics — it is a poor combination. While markets ended the first quarter in a better place than the end of 2018, primarily due to policies in China and the US, the next few months will be frustrating.
China will stabilise but will not be in a position to push global demand. The US will continue to slow, with big repricing for monetary policy change behind us. Sino-US trade talks and Brexit will provide incomplete outcomes and markets will stay range-bound.
Through a potent mix of fiscal, monetary and structural measures, China will do whatever it takes to engineer a “soft landing” — and early comments from property operators in the country suggest policy changes have indeed had a positive impact. Sales growth by listed property companies in first-tier cities bounced back to 26 per cent year-on-year growth in March after declining in the first two months of the year. Green shoots?