It was perfect choreography, with impeccable — if dangerous — footwork from Iran. Confronted with overwhelming pressure from Donald Trump’s US administration, Tehran resorted to the military tactics that have long been its hallmark. The Iranians poked, tested and delivered warnings, so America and its allies in the region could be in no doubt about its offensive abilities.
The recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and last week’s downing of a US surveillance drone were designed, in Iranian minds, to deter American military aggression, rather than spark it. Other messages came through rocket attacks on oilfields in southern Iraq, where Iran is the most powerful power broker and the US has multiple assets.
Mr Trump blinked, calling off at the last minute the series of military strikes on Iranian targets he had just ordered. I doubt he was swayed by his stated reason: to avoid collateral damage. For all his bluster, he is an isolationist by instinct. He knows all too well the history of US interventions in the Middle East: it is easy to start a war there but far more difficult to win it — or end it. On Sunday, he went as far as to praise Iran’s restraint, noting that its military had spared a manned US spy plane flying next to the drone.