Trying to predict a recession is a fool’s game. Expansions don’t die of old age. Various hard-to-predict accidents can put an end to them. A trade war — like the Smoot-Hawley tariff spiral in the 1930s — could be one such accident. The question is not when, but how, a recession plays out. And the policy response is key to the answer.
试图预测一场衰退是否即将来临是不明智的。扩张不会“寿终正寝”。各种难以预测的意外都可能把它断送。一场贸易战（例如上世纪30年代的斯穆特-霍利(Smoot-Hawley)关税法案事件）可能就是这样的意外。问题不是衰退何时开始，而是衰退大戏会如何展开。而政策回应是这个答案的关键。
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