The Federal Reserve has warned on the rising downside risk to the economy in the months ahead, according to the minutes of its September policy meeting at which it cut interest rates for the second time this year.
The minutes, released on Wednesday afternoon, showed the US central bank’s statistical models on the likelihood of a recession in the medium term had increased and that policymakers were generally more concerned with risks associated with the trade war and geopolitics.
In the policy statement accompanying its September rate decision, the Fed noted the improved health of the consumer, with household spending rising at a “strong pace”, but pointed out business fixed investment and exports had “weakened” since its July meeting, when it delivered the first rate cut since the financial crisis.