At this time of year, it is traditional for market economists to release detailed macro forecasts for the 12 months ahead. I am alarmed to find that I am now completing my fifth decade of performing this difficult exercise, with much less than perfect success so far. Important economic and market dislocations do not cram themselves neatly into a calendar year.
This time, I will turn to Fulcrum’s suite of econometric models, built in the past decade, for guidance on possible economic and market scenarios for next year and beyond. It is useful to know what the models — or algorithms — are saying, if only to know where measurable “facts” end and human judgment begins.
Where global economic activity is now
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