The US and Iran have stepped back from the brink — for now. A week ago, Iranian missile strikes from within its own territory on bases housing US troops in Iraq would have seemed barely thinkable. In the event, what amounted to a relatively restrained response to the US assassination of Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani — and, crucially, the lack of American casualties — provided an opening for Donald Trump to reduce tensions. On Wednesday, while slapping tougher sanctions on Iran and insisting the US was still mulling a counter-response, the US president appeared to seize that opening. Yet even if outright war has been avoided, the road ahead remains hazardous.
Iran’s response to the US attack underlines its capacity for careful calculation. Direct action by the Iranian military against US interests — rather than through proxies abroad — certainly marked a significant escalation. It was, at the same time, calibrated to meet the need for Tehran to answer the Soleimani killing while lessening the risk of a devastating American response.
Iranian leaders could portray it to their public as bold and righteous vengeance. Yet whatever the truth of suggestions that Iran deliberately sought to avoid casualties, such an attack was foreseeable — which may explain why US troops were apparently in their bunkers. The lack of harm to US personnel lessened the need for the US to strike back hard. Tehran’s messaging, too, was shrewd. By tweeting that Iran “took and concluded” proportionate action, foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif signalled Tehran did not seek a broader conflict.