How badly will the coronavirus pandemic hurt global trade flows? That is a question many investors are nervously asking, as countries including the US and India impose travel bans and companies everywhere brace for supply-chain shocks. But as fear spreads, there is a second issue that investors should also contemplate: what will happen to the financial flows that normally back these supply chains?
The answer may be alarming. As Credit Suisse analysts point out, these issues could create big dislocations in demands for dollar funding. The US Federal Reserve can try to offset the impact by intervening dramatically in its domestic repurchase “repo” markets — as it did on Wednesday and undoubtedly will do again — that may not be enough to offset all the global stress.
“Our main concern is about missed payments for dollars globally,” the analysts wrote, adding that missed payments will force “firms to become deficit agents [consuming more money than they generate]; as this cascades, banks and regional banking systems will become deficit agents [too].”