A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. The journey through this pandemic is going to be long and hard. We cannot know where it will end, although it is hard not to speculate. What we must do instead is focus on the steps right ahead if we are to avoid falling off our narrow path into mass deaths on one side, or economic devastation on the other. If we do not avoid these calamities in the near future, we risk chaos ahead. Even if we do manage to do so, we will not return to the normality we took for granted until recently. For that, we must at least wait for a cure or vaccine. The economic and social damage will last even longer.
Analysis by the OECD illuminates the economic disruption ahead. This is no ordinary recession or even depression, caused by a collapse in demand. Economic activity is being switched off, partly because people fear contact and partly because governments have told them to stay at home. The immediate impact of these actions could be a reduction in gross domestic product in the Group of Seven leading high-income countries of between 20 and 30 per cent. Every month that large parts of our economies stay closed, annual growth might fall by 2 percentage points.
Moreover, the costs are unequally shared. Unskilled workers suffer worst from loss of jobs. People and businesses able to work online, stay working. Those that cannot do so, do not.