The gap between the relatively quick V-shaped recovery that some economists and many market participants predict, and grim coronavirus-driven realities on the ground has narrowed. But the disparity is still significant enough to pose difficult questions for investors.
The quicker those questions are answered, the smaller the probability of another bout of market instability contaminating a challenged economy.
Economists initially — and over-optimistically — embraced the idea of a quick second-quarter recovery after a sharp contraction in the first quarter. That has shifted to a big contraction in the second quarter followed by a more gradual recovery in the subsequent three: a pattern more consistent with the sudden stop to global activity.
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