China wants to keep credit flowing. This sounds sensible amid an unprecedented slowdown in the economy. For the country’s banks, however, China’s support measures are anything but supportive.
To reach the government’s credit flow targets for this year, China’s largest lenders will need to sacrifice Rmb1.5tn ($211bn) in profit — almost two-thirds of the industry’s total last year. Saying no is not an option. Many of the country’s largest banks are state-controlled. They have little choice but to follow the measures.
A 50 basis point benchmark lending rate cut on loans and a Rmb300bn bad loans write-off for smaller businesses will account for the biggest chunk in lost profits. Banks will need to offer yet more unsecured loans as well as lowering rates, slashing fees and deferring more repayments.