The Brexit vote of 2016 was ardently wished for in Moscow. Vladimir Putin’s belief was that Britain’s departure from the EU would weaken the western alliance.
But it now looks as if the Russian president got it wrong. Far from weakening the west, Brexit may end up strengthening it. Without Britain as a member, the EU is once again progressing towards “ever closer union”. And a stronger EU will be a more effective partner for a post-Donald Trump America.
In the long run, the relationship between the EU and the UK could settle down into something analogous to the relationship between the US and Canada. The Canadians/British have no desire to join the US/EU. They accept that an asymmetry in power with a much larger neighbour is the consequence of maintaining their political independence. But both sides in these lopsided partnerships can still benefit from deep economic integration and strategic co-operation based on shared interests, values and geography.