We don’t know yet what will happen in 2021, because the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos has been called off. Normally at this time of year, political and business leaders gather in the Swiss ski resort to reveal the future. Now we’ll only discover what’s coming when they meet in Singapore in May. Actually, scratch that: most Davos predictions are worthless. There is no VIP crystal ball.
My aim here isn’t to mock Davos — that’s too easy. I’ll even skip the ritual joke about rich men arriving on private planes to discuss climate change, sexism and inequality. My only question is: how to improve the Davos product?
First, let’s review past predictions. In January 2008, as the subprime crisis unfolded, Davos buzzed with confidence, nicely articulated by Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics: “It is inconceivable — repeat, inconceivable — to get a world recession.” To be fair, the forum’s 54-page Global Risks Report did include two paragraphs on subprime mortgages.