The broad upswing in commodity prices since the depths of the coronavirus crisis represents just the first leg of a sector-wide “bull market” fanned by government spending, analysts and investors say.
Wall Street banks are telling their clients to increase their exposure to raw materials, which are poised to benefit from a vaccine-driven global economic recovery, aided by fiscal stimulus. Some are even predicting a prolonger period of commodity-intensive growth that marks a repeat of the so-called “supercycle” of the 2000s — where oil and metal prices hit record highs as China’s rapid industrialisation caught the industry napping.
“It’s easy — and largely accurate — to present the 2021 commodity outlook as a V-shaped vaccine trade,” said Goldman Sachs in a recent report. “What we think is key, however, is that this recovery in commodity prices will actually be the beginning of a much longer structural bull market for commodities.”