The sharp rise in commodity prices from the depths of the Covid-19 lockdown is fuelling talk of a commodities supercycle with the greening of the global economy replacing fast-paced Chinese industrialisation as the structural driver of demand.
But we think caution is warranted.
The long history of commodity markets shows that supercycles take from 20 to 70 years from peak to peak. The last one followed the transformation of China in the mid-1990s and is still not fully spent in our opinion. These long swings are caused by insufficient investment in capacity and therefore the booms are spaced out.
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