When French investment bank Natixis polled its clients in December about their key expectations for the year ahead, their survey found that 52 per cent of them expected emerging markets to outperform major economies.
The market consensus also held that currencies battered by the impact of coronavirus in 2020 would turn into star performers this year, their rise fuelled by the global economic rebound, a wilting dollar and loose monetary policy in the US.
It’s not shaping up that way. In the first quarter of the year, emerging markets equities rose around 5 per cent, less than half the 9 per cent surge in the S&P 500. The currencies of developing economies have also fared less well than anticipated, while the dollar has gained nearly 3 per cent against a basket of its peers in that period.