The recent Democracy Summit, hosted by the Biden administration, was meant to be an uplifting occasion. But the virtual gathering of 111 governments took place against a worrying backdrop. Freedom House, which monitors political liberty, has recorded a shrinkage of global freedom, in each of the past 15 years.
The global “democratic recession” is now well entrenched. But things could improve in 2022. Some high-profile strongman leaders, closely associated with the erosion of established democracies, may lose power.
Three leaders whose political fates hang in the balance are Viktor Orban in Hungary, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. They are all globally significant figures. Bolsonaro leads the largest country in Latin America. The Philippines has a population of well over 100m people. And Orban’s vocal advocacy of “illiberal democracy” in Hungary has made him a hero to the Trumpian right in America. His erosion of the rule of law has also led to a confrontation with the European Commission.