Well, that was a surprise. German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision yesterday to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project was the first sign that Berlin might get serious in opposing Russia’s aggressions against Ukraine.
It remains to be seen whether Germany, hitherto President Vladimir Putin’s most reliable heavy-hitting friend in the EU, has stopped Nord Stream 2 for good or just hit pause to see how the situation evolves. The first-round package of sanctions the EU is collectively planning reaches further than many had expected, including asset freezes and travel bans on Putin’s defence minister and chief of staff. But by continuing mainly to focus narrowly on banks and individuals connected to the incursion, the sanctions suggest the EU may not fully recognise the weakness of its efforts at punishing Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and incursions into eastern Ukraine.
If Nord Stream 2 is cancelled, it won’t be an immediate economic blow to Russia, which already has the Nord Stream 1 and Yamal gas pipelines to Europe. The significance is rather that Germany might finally be signalling it is prepared to absorb substantial economic and political pain as a cost of isolating Putin’s regime. (The UK, because of the impact on London as a financial centre or, more likely, on the Conservative party, has manifestly failed the same test.)