China has long hoped for independence in cross-border payments and a widely used digital currency. Despite heavy investment and effort, those goals have remained elusive. Now the EU plans to expel some Russian banks from Swift, the world’s interbank payments network. This may just be what China needs to make its version of Swift, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (Cips), a serious proposition.
Backed by China’s central bank, Cips offers clearing and settlement services for cross-border renminbi payments. The small share of the currency in international payments — 2 per cent — means Cips is a long way from challenging Swift. The US dollar remains dominant in global payments with a share of around 40 per cent.
Russia, however, may have little choice. There are too many constraints on its own local alternative, SPFS. The Russian central bank set this up in 2014 following previous threats to disconnect its banks in the wake of its invasion of Crimea. But there are only 20 foreign banks on SPFS, too few to make it particularly useful.