The writer is a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation
Russia has launched an unprecedented act of aggression against Ukraine. The United States and its allies must respond forcefully. But as they do, they should take into account the possibility of triggering a spiral of escalation that could lead to the only outcome worse than the invasion of Ukraine itself: a hot war between Russia and Nato.
Neither Russia nor Nato wants to go to war with the other. But history is rife with examples of states ending up in a war without initially having intended to fight, as well as cases of smaller conflicts sparking broader wars. And the circumstances of the Russian invasion create particularly significant escalation risks.
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