Financial warfare creates collateral damage — and damage to collateral. Tit-for-tat sanctions could disrupt supplies of nickel from Russia, the world’s third-largest producer. Prices for the metal, a vital ingredient in batteries and steel, more than doubled to over $100,000 per tonne on Tuesday. Chinese banks were scrambling to close bearish bets by clients.
Their soaring exposure had triggered margin calls for extra collateral. Expect this pattern to repeat. Many Russian oligarchs may be equally exposed to margin calls on personal loans secured against share collateral that has collapsed in value.
The difference between nickel and Russian stocks is that the metal is traded transparently via the London Metal Exchange. Prices were already at a decade high before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That lured in Chinese short sellers. But their big bets backfired amid the threat of sanctions on Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest single producer.