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Deglobalisation is boosting foreign exchange volatility

Currency swings will continue until globalising forces, such as resilient supply chains, resume

The writer is global head of G10 FX Options Trading at Goldman Sachs, and author of ‘Foreign Exchange — Practical Asset Pricing and Macroeconomic Theory’

Foreign exchange markets have this year been jolted by a sudden increase in volatility. There are many reasons for this, but at the heart of the shift is deglobalisation.

To understand why, consider first the opposite. In a hypothetical, perfectly globalised world, there would be no barriers to international trade, meaning goods could be produced in one country and transported to the other without cost or friction.

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