观点移民

Why the rich world’s fertility problem will force a rethink on immigration

Keeping a stable population means being more generous to families or attracting people from other countries

The rich world can produce more of everything it needs with greater and greater ease: except people. For a population to remain stable, the average family needs to have 2.1 children: two to replace them, with the rather surreal sounding “0.1” on top to make up for the people who won’t, for reasons of infertility, preference or bad luck, be able to have children themselves.

Overpopulation has its own problems, but we have a much better idea of how to bring birth rates down than to bring them back up again. Greater reproductive rights, easy access to contraception and better education all mean women have fewer children: across the world, the fertility rate has fallen drastically. In 1950, the average woman had more than five children; now she has fewer than 2.5.

Part of the problem is that parenthood in general and motherhood in particular is often not a great deal for those involved. Maternity care before, during and after pregnancy can lag behind other parts of healthcare provision. Most, but not all, of the remaining gender pay gap is actually a “motherhood gap”. And while parents are, on average, happier than childless adults in old age, they are, on average, unhappier while raising children than their childless friends are when watching art house movies, eating in classy restaurants and living in blissful ignorance about who Peppa Pig is.

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