It has always been entertaining to read predictions that fail the test of time. In 1865, as engineers were racing to develop the telephone, an American editor sniffed: “Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires . . . and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.”A more recent favourite is the 2007 interview with Steve Ballmer, then chief executive of Microsoft, in which he confidently declared: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” About one in five smartphones sold globally is now an iPhone.
每当读到那些经不住时间考验的预测时，都会觉得很有趣。1865年，许多工程师竞相研发电话机，一位美国主编嗤之以鼻：“有见识的人都知道，人的声音不可能通过电线传输……就算能，那种东西也不会有任何实用价值。”
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