Vishnu Kurella is founding portfolio manager of Volar Capital. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect those of any affiliated organisation.Economist Milton Friedman is famous for many insights. None feels as relevant today as the “long and variable lags” he said characterised the delay between the implementation of monetary policy and its eventual impact.
Friedman pointed to data — borne out by subsequent analysis — that suggest it can take up to 24 months after monetary policy changes for economic activity and prices to respond. A common metaphor to represent this lagged effect is adjusting the temperature of a shower with very long pipes.
With this in mind, the fact that we haven’t yet seen much in the way of an economic slowdown or job losses after this year’s rate hikes shouldn’t come as a surprise. Fed chair Jay Powell recently quoted Friedman directly on the subject, and even used the same water pipe metaphor.