Not so long ago, apocalyptic forecasts abounded on the outlook for European energy supplies this winter. Now it seems the worst-case scenarios for widespread blackouts and rationing may have been averted. Natural gas prices have fallen sharply from an all-time peak in August. The EU’s gas storage has been filled to 95 per cent capacity. An unusually mild autumn has helped. Fears that Europe might run short of energy reserves to get households and businesses through the colder months have been assuaged by rapid action to build up stocks, boost efficiency and procure alternate supplies. But the region is not out of the woods yet. Getting through winter 2023 could be an even greater challenge.Europe must not be lulled into a false sense of security. This time next year, storage sites may only be 65 per cent full, given the difficulties it could face in refilling them from the spring, according to the International Energy Agency. For starters, weather conditions could quickly turn and deplete stores. There may be little or no Russian gas to rebuild reserves too. Before Vladimir Putin reduced exports to a trickle in September by indefinitely closing Nord Stream 1 — the main pipeline carrying gas from Russia to Europe, Russian gas had been important in meeting storage targets.
不久以前，欧洲今冬能源供应的前景还充斥着末日般的预测。现在看来，大范围停电和实施能源配给的最坏情境也许已经得以避免。天然气价格已经从8月的历史峰值大幅下跌。欧盟的天然气储备已经达到储存容量的95%。异常温暖的秋天对此有所帮助。建立储备、提高能效和采购替代供应的迅速行动，减轻了对于欧洲可能耗尽能源储备、家庭和企业难以渡过寒冬的担忧。但欧洲还未脱离险境。渡过2023年冬天可能是更大的挑战。