2023年度展望

Ruchir Sharma’s investor guide to 2023: from peak dollar to better TV
2023年投资者指南:从美元见顶到“蓝鸟”

With the era of easy money at an end, who will be the winners and losers — and can we expect any blue birds?
夏尔马:宽松货币时代结束了,谁将是赢家?谁又将是输家?我们能看到“蓝鸟”出现吗?

Talking to leaders these days in any walk of life, I have a sense that people are frozen. They see that inflation is back in a serious way for the first time in decades, forcing central banks to raise interest rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. They understand that this sudden change in the price of money — the most important driver of economic and financial behaviour — marks a fundamental break with the past. But they are not acting. After living with easy money for so long, they find it difficult even to contemplate a different world. There is a term for this state of mind: zeteophobia, or paralysis in the face of life-altering choices.

最近不管和哪个行业的领军人物聊天,我都有一种感觉:人们“凝滞不动了”。他们看到通胀数十年来首次大规模回归,迫使各央行以上世纪80年代初以来最快的速度加息。他们明白,作为影响manbetx20客户端下载 和金融行为的最重要因素,资金的价格发生这种突如其来的变化,标志着现在和以往是截然不同了。但他们并没有采取行动。长久以来习惯了“宽松货币”,当世界变得不一样,他们发现即使只是想一想那样的世界都很难做到。有一个词语是形容这种心理状态的:生涯规划恐惧症(zeteophobia),也就是在需要做出改变人生道路的抉择时,却什么都不敢做。

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