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The global implications of China’s mid-income trap

The IMF has chainsawed longer-term growth forecasts

Three decades ago, China’s annual economic output was about $433bn in current dollar terms, making its economy roughly the size of an Austria or South Africa today.

It is now comfortably the world’s biggest economy — with current-dollar gross domestic product of $17.7tn — and in the post-financial crisis era it has easily been the single biggest contributor to global GDP growth.

Between the beginning of 2010 and the end of 2020, China’s economy grew by about $11.6tn in current-dollar terms. That’s the equivalent to adding about six and a half Russias, almost four UKs or Indias, nearly three Germanys, more than two Japans, or more than 50 Greeces. It’s like adding an Indonesia every year for a decade.

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