Eswar Prasad has been thinking about China’s economy longer than most. The Cornell professor’s new paper — which examines whether the Chinese economy has gone from “miracle to malady” — makes for timely reading amid fears the Asian superpower has fallen into a classic middle-income trap that could morph into something more dangerous.
Prasad’s basic argument is that Beijing has actually managed an “inefficient and risky growth model” surprisingly well, and while “unbalanced reforms, a schizophrenic approach to the role of the market versus the state, and strains in financial and property markets could result in significant volatility… a financial or economic collapse is not in the cards”.
Here’s his conclusion:
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