New technologies create excitement. The invention of the railroad led to the “Railway Mania” in 1840s UK, which saw investors pile into railway stocks. In the 1920s the radio similarly captured the imagination. And more recently, euphoria over internet adoption saw the Nasdaq rise fivefold between 1995 and 2000. The hysteria stems in part from high expectations over how far and how fast innovations can boost human wellbeing and productivity, in addition to the “fear of missing out”. But in each case, the initial bubble burst as reality caught up with expectations. The rise of generative AI — particularly large language models, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT — has sparked a similar frenzy. Since ChatGPT’s launch last November, glowing reports on the potential economic impact of the technology — which can automate tasks from writing essays to generating code — have been coming thick and fast. Goldman Sachs estimated that it could drive gains in productivity that could raise global GDP by 7 per cent over a ten-year period.
新技术总是会催人激动。铁路的发明导致英国在19世纪40年代出现“铁路热”(Railway Mania)，投资者纷纷涌入铁路股。上世纪20年代，收音机曾以类似的方式激发人们的想象力。而在不那么久之前，人们对互联网普及的狂热情绪使纳斯达克(Nasdaq)指数在1995年至2000年期间上涨4倍。这种歇斯底里的背后除了“害怕踏空”的心理外，还源自人们对于创新能在多大程度上——以及多快——增进人类福祉和提高生产率抱有很高的期望。但最初的泡沫每每都会随着现实与预期发生碰撞而破灭。