The writer is principal counsellor at Earendel Associates and a former adviser to Nato on Russia
When news of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s insurrection broke, the first question was, is this theatre or is it real? It has turned out to be both. Despite a degree of theatre, this was not a play scripted by Vladimir Putin. It was a real threat to the Russian president and, though some may believe he has prevailed, domestically (where it matters) his image as an omnipotent Tsar has been gravely damaged.
With hindsight, it appears that the trigger for Prigozhin’s boldly executed insurrection was not only nationalist fervour and righteous anger, but money. In a democracy, money can bring you power. But in Russia’s feudal mafia system, only power can bring you money. Defence minister Sergei Shoigu’s order that Wagner soldiers must sign up as army troops was in effective a massive cut in Prigozhin’s income.