破局-2023发展与展望

An ‘immaculate disinflation’ in the US is not guaranteed
FT社评:美国“完美反通胀”场景并非板上钉钉

Investors betting on a soft landing should exercise caution
尽管美国乃至世界各地的通胀正在下降无疑是积极的,但疫后的此轮利率周期很奇特,足以让寄希望于软着陆的投资者停下来思考一下。

The US Federal Reserve may feel a little smug this week as its interest rate setting committee meets for the last time before the summer break. Annual inflation in America slowed to just 3 per cent in June, the lowest since March 2021. It has dropped below even the traditionally inflation-challenged Japan, where price growth has hit 3.3 per cent. Perhaps more impressive is that joblessness has barely increased and the odds of a recession are falling, despite the Fed’s aggressive 500 basis points of rate rises over the past 18 months.

美联储(Federal Reserve)负责制定利率的委员会本周举行暑假前最后一次会议时,可能会感到有点沾沾自喜。美国年度通胀率在6月放缓至3%,这是自2021年3月以来的最低水平,甚至低于传统上通胀偏低的日本,后者的价格涨幅达到3.3%。也许更令人印象深刻的是,尽管美国央行在过去18个月期间激进加息了500个基点,但失业率几乎没有上升,manbetx20客户端下载 衰退的发生几率正在下降。

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