Have central bank interest rates peaked in the US and the eurozone? If so, how quickly might they fall? From around mid-2021, central banks clearly had to tighten significantly. But what they have to do next is uncertain. Whatever central bankers might say about what they plan to do, events always have the last word. If, as many now expect, core inflation falls quickly towards their target, they will have to loosen policy. While loss of credibility is damaging when inflation gets too high, it is also so when it gets too low. A return to sub-target inflation and “pushing on a string” monetary policy would be highly undesirable. The time to respond to such risks looks close — closer than central banks admit, especially given the lags in transmission of the past tightening.
美国和欧元区的央行利率已经见顶了吗？如果是的话，多久会开始下行？从2021年年中开始，美欧央行明显不得不大幅收紧货币政策。但他们下一步必须怎么做还不确定。不管央行官员说他们计划怎么做，最终总是要看形势怎么发展。如果就像许多人现在预计的那样，核心通胀率快速朝着目标水平下降，那么央行将不得不放松政策。在通胀过高时丧失公信力具有破坏性后果，在通胀过低时同样如此。假如通胀率回到低于目标值的水平、货币政策重新陷入“推绳子”困境，那将是极其不可取的。对这种风险做出回应的时机看起来已经很近了，比央行承认的更近，尤其是考虑到已经采取的紧缩政策在传导上存在滞后。