So where did the currency wars go? The renminbi and yen are at their weakest against the dollar since 2008 and 1990, respectively. The Chinese current account surplus, properly measured, is probably at or approaching a record high. The White House is obsessed with boosting US manufacturing and what it regards as unfair competition from China. Yet Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met on Wednesday and exchange rates were barely, if at all, on the agenda. While this is a lull, it is highly unlikely to be a permanent peace. The factors that created battles over currency misalignments have not gone away. China in particular is threatening to return to the sort of mercantilist behaviour that started protracted tensions 20 years ago.
The US, despite strong objections to China’s trade-distorting protectionism and domestic subsidies, hasn’t fussed much over the renminbi’s value or China’s trade position. Last week, the US Treasury’s twice-yearly currency report, which in the past has formally labelled China a manipulator, was released with barely a ripple of discussion.
There are several reasons for this. With the US economy recovering remarkably well from the pandemic, a stronger dollar helps keep down inflation, which seems to be a higher priority for voters than growth and jobs, and makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.