A war between Israel and Hamas is now spreading to the Red Sea. Following attacks by Yemeni rebels linked to Iran, the world’s biggest shipping companies and oil producers are halting vessels sailing towards the Suez Canal. Opec+ member nations have agreed to extend oil production cuts. This all sounds familiar and depressing.
When the Ever Given got stuck in the same trade artery in early 2021, at a time of stringent Opec+ restrictions, global supply chains wilted and oil prices surged, fuelling the worst global inflation for 40 years.
But this time is different. Oil and gas prices have barely budged on the recent news. Brent crude is trading a little lower than a year ago while European gas prices are down nearly 70 per cent. US and European economies are much more resilient than two years ago to this sort of disruption and the evidence suggests the gains will persist.