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China’s economy faces ‘critical year’ in battle against deflation

Beijing forecast to exceed 2023 growth target but outlook is tougher as consumers remain cautious

As the head of China’s biggest jewellery retailer, Kent Wong has his finger on the pulse of consumers in the world’s second-largest economy — and they are wary.

Wong, managing director of Chow Tai Fook, said the chain’s customers have been pivoting from diamonds and other gemstones to gold, a store of wealth in tough times. “In the short term, people will continue to be more cautious no matter [whether it’s] consumption or investment,” he said, adding though that he expected consumer confidence to return in a year or two.

Wong’s subdued outlook for 2024, shared by many analysts, comes as policymakers in Beijing brace for a decisive year in their battle to restore the economy’s animal spirits and escape the threat of a debt-deflation spiral.

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