Web3与加密金融

Why bitcoin’s price could still tumble

Crypto bulls gleefully expect an increase but their target of $100,000 seems over-optimistic

Bitcoin prices are at fresh record highs in many currencies. In dollars the cryptocurrency is up more than 40 per cent over the past month. The $69,000 intra day high set in 2021 is within reach. Excitement is being fuelled by the approval of spot exchange traded funds in the US. Expected changes to the way bitcoins are created or “mined” due at the end of April are adding to the frenzy.

The “halving” event that happens about every four years was written into bitcoin code by its creator as a means to enhance scarcity. It means that the number of coins a miner gets as a reward for completing each calculation will fall from 6.25 to 3.125. This mechanically raises the production cost and reduces supply at the same time.

Regardless of whether you believe bitcoin has any real value, prices remain tied to these underlying fundamentals. Opinions on the former are shifting as mainstream adoption grows; some $70bn has flowed into spot bitcoin exchange traded funds since they first went live in January, according to data from The Block. Rising demand from buyers anticipating the next halving explains why crypto bulls now gleefully predict bitcoin prices will soon exceed $100,000.

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