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Making sense of a wrong-way bet on the yen
为何对日元的预测失误了?

Among the largest developed-market peers, the Japanese currency has lost the most against the dollar this year
3个月前,分析师还预测今年日元将迎来拐点;而今年迄今,在主要发达市场货币中,日元对美元汇率跌幅最大。

Just three months ago, many in the analyst community expected that 2024 would mark an inflection point for the yen after three years of the currency falling against the dollar. The consensus forecast was for the yen to appreciate from ¥141 against the US currency at the end of 2023 to ¥135 a year later, according to Bloomberg data.Instead, however, the yen has fallen further, flirting with levels near ¥152. Among the largest developed-market currencies, the yen has lost the most against the dollar so far this year, weakening nearly 7 per cent.

就在3个月前,许多分析人士还预计,在日元对美元汇率连续3年下跌之后,日元将在2024年迎来拐点。彭博(Bloomberg)数据显示,共识预测是,相比2023年底的1美元兑141日元,日元对美元汇率将在一年后升至1美元兑135日元。

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