The writer is an FT contributing editor, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Sofia, and fellow at IWM Vienna
A spectre is haunting Europe: that of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. As a recent opinion poll shows, even voters on the European far right — with the glaring exception of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary — are downcast at the prospect of another four years of disruption. But whatever Europeans may think about a second Trump presidency, it is the American people who will decide.
Many among the European elite seem to believe that Trump’s return will not happen because, in their view, it shouldn’t. They are also wary of predicting a Trump victory in November for fear of antagonising the Biden administration. Fortunately, there remain significant reserves of sang-froid on the continent, so if Trump does end up winning, Europe will adjust. It survived his first term, after all.