The decision by Iran to escalate its conflict with Israel by launching a barrage of armed drones and missiles brings the risks of open war between the two countries, possibly involving the US, yet closer. It is no secret, after all, that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s embattled prime minister, has long wished to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. Some in the US feel similarly. Is this not the hawks’ chance?
In a column published in October 2023, I argued that such an escalation was the principal danger to the world economy posed by the murderous attack on Israel by Hamas. Even though the oil-intensity of the world economy has more than halved over the past 50 years, oil remains an essential source of energy. Severe disruption to supply would have large adverse economic effects.
Moreover, the Gulf region is far and away the world’s most important energy-producer: according to the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, it contains 48 per cent of global proved reserves and produced 33 per cent of the world’s oil in 2022. Worse, according to the US Energy Information Administration, a fifth of world oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz, at the bottom of the Gulf, in 2018. This is the chokepoint of global energy supply. A war between Iran and Israel, possibly including the US, could be devastating.