The US dollar is not a tide that lifts all boats. We saw that clearly earlier in April as an elevated US dollar, driven to a six-month high against a basket of other currencies by a repricing of US interest rates, exposed pockets of currency stress in Asia. The Japanese yen and Korean won dropped to historic lows, and other currencies, ranging from the euro to the renminbi, have tumbled since.This is not the highest the dollar has reached — it peaked higher in September 2022, when a surprise rate jump and Russia’s war in Ukraine spurred dollar demand. But unlike 2022, when investors flocked to the dollar amid a global tightening cycle, a stubbornly hot American economy now contrasts with a disinflationary global backdrop. With markets now betting that US interest rates will remain high while rates fall elsewhere, investors will choose the dollar to latch on to better returns and supercharged American growth. This threatens to create more upward pressure on the value of the dollar, with risks for the global economy.
美元并不是能够将所有船都抬高的潮水。我们在4月早些时候清楚地看到了这一点：对美国利率预期的调整推动美元兑一篮子其他货币升至六个月高点，使亚洲的一些货币承压。日元和韩元跌至历史低点，而欧元和人民币等其他货币自那以来也纷纷下跌。