The dust has more or less settled on the European parliament elections and the implications are becoming clear. It’s a substantial swing to the right, but not one that’s going to put the far or hard right in power in EU institutions.
The real impact is, of course, at national level where centrist French and German governments face an increasing threat from populist anti-immigrant parties on the right. Even if the current administrations remain in power, the Netherlands under Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the UK (both inside and outside the EU) under the Conservatives could testify that being harried by a populist opposition can drag a centre-right government towards hostility to immigration.
The rise of the right makes it harder for Europe to deal with its real migration crisis: the need for foreign workers. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has so far managed to square that circle by distracting from large-scale immigration with performative hostility to asylum-seekers. But for the UK’s Tory party, deservedly about to face electoral obliteration in the British general election of July 4, this strategy has run out of road.