The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy
There is virtually no doubt that the Federal Reserve will initiate an interest rate-cutting cycle next Wednesday. Indeed, recent data has supported the view that the central bank would have been better off doing so in July, at the prior meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Yet the sure expectation of next week’s rate cut comes with considerable analytical uncertainty about the endpoint for rates, the journey to that destination, the impact on the economy and for international spillovers. This uncertainty could easily catch bond investors off guard if liquidity conditions fail to loosen significantly.
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