The 80-year-old Pax Americana in Europe might expire next month. There’s a 50-50 chance that Donald Trump is elected president and, let’s say, a 50-50 chance that he abandons the protection of Europe, just as Ukraine runs out of soldiers. He needn’t even bother leaving Nato. He could just let it go dormant. That means a 25 per cent chance of Europe facing its worst military threat since 1945.
Yes, it’s a hypothetical, but a hypothetical that could happen as soon as early next year. What might “Europe alone” look like?
For years, think-tanks published reports telling European states to get ready to fight alone, but the Europeans didn’t. Even the possible imminency of Trump II hasn’t concentrated minds. The trouble is, Nato members cannot realistically plan for a future without the US, given that there is no Nato without the US. National governments and Brussels feel they have already poured more into defence than anyone imagined in 2021. The EU, never previously a military power, has sent Ukraine tens of billions of euros in weapons. Even Germany is trying to build a serious army. But these efforts aren’t enough.