The writer is a professor at Georgetown University and a senior adviser with The Asia Group. He served on the US National Security Council staff from 2009-2015
No one knows what the future holds for US-China ties, maybe not even Donald Trump himself. The president-elect’s views on China are myriad and contradictory. There is the Xi Jinping-loving Trump who wants to do big deals with strong leaders. And there is Trump the strategic competitor who felt cheated by China on Covid and the bilateral trade deal. He also knows that being tough on China is reliably great politics. Will Trump the dealmaker or Trump the competitor step forward? Likely both.
Perhaps the biggest variable will be whether Trump himself runs China policy or lets his advisers take control. During the first few years of his first term, Trump was laser focused on the Phase One trade deal and enthusiastically used tariffs as leverage. His advisers, on the other hand, a mix of economic nationalists and national security hawks, pushed economic decoupling, tech restrictions and strategic competition. In his final year, feeling wronged over Covid, Trump let his advisers loose, especially by embracing Taiwan.